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When the price climbed to 200,000/ton, many people said that the turning point was reached;
When the price climbed to 300,000/ton, many people said that the inflection point was reached;
When the price climbed to 400,000/ton, many people said that the inflection point was reached.
Now the latest price has exceeded 500,000/ton, who else can say the turning point?
That's right, it's the price of lithium carbonate, which is very hot now, and constantly refreshes the market perception. If the price at the peak of the previous cycle (160,000/ton) is counted, today's price can definitely be said to be sky-high.
It is understood that on March 1, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.01% from the previous day to 500,400 yuan / ton, an increase of 510.37% from the same period last year. In terms of regions, the highest quotation for battery-grade lithium carbonate in Shandong and Jiangxi is 506,000 yuan / ton.
Where is the price inflection point? For the price to have an inflection point, the key is to return to the level of supply and demand.
From the perspective of lithium salt production, it can be roughly divided into two parts, one is the most upstream lithium mining, and the other is smelting and production. Originally, the two links were independent, but now the trend of integration is obvious. , Tianqi has invested in many lithium mines at home and abroad.
From the perspective of the production capacity of major manufacturers (including new production capacity), although the production capacity is also tight, as new production capacity is put into operation in the second half of this year, the problem will be alleviated. The real bottleneck is lithium mining.
The world's lithium deposits are mainly distributed in Australia and South America (northwest China also occupies a part), Australia is mainly hard rock type (spodumene), South America is mainly salt lake (brine) lithium. This involves a problem - shipping. Although it has eased now, the epidemic has not completely subsided. Geopolitical problems have occurred frequently, and the negative impact still exists.
The second question, in terms of reserves, salt lake lithium accounts for more than half, which is larger than spodumene, but the extraction of lithium from salt lakes is difficult, and the existing technology is relatively backward, so the main battery-grade lithium salt is still hard rock type. Lithium mine supply, if there is a major breakthrough in the technology of lithium extraction from salt lakes, the supply of lithium mines will increase significantly, but in the short term, the possibility of a breakthrough is not high.
The third question, with the global new energy revolution and the rapid growth of electric vehicles, everyone is aware of the importance of lithium ore. While frantically buying lithium ore resources, there are also many variables in the resource-rich countries, such as a few months. The previous Chilean election has attracted the attention of the world, especially the energy industry, because whoever comes to power will affect the country's future lithium policy and global lithium supply.
On February 28, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on promoting the smooth operation of industry and informatization and upgrading its quality. Xin Guobin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said at the meeting that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will "focus on meeting the production needs of power batteries, moderately speed up the development of domestic lithium resources, and combat unfair competition such as hoarding and price hikes. At the same time, improve power batteries. The recycling system supports technological breakthroughs such as efficient dismantling and recycling, and continuously improves the recycling ratio and resource utilization efficiency.”
According to reports, Zeng Yuqun, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and chairman of CATL, will submit four proposals during the two sessions this year, covering issues such as ensuring supply and price of lithium resources, carbon footprint, energy storage and road transportation of lithium batteries. Zeng Yuqun said in his proposal to promote stable supply and price of domestic lithium resources: "The current situation of supply and demand of lithium resources is severe, and the development of the industry is facing challenges. We should speed up the exploration and development of domestic lithium resources to ensure the security of the supply chain, and at the same time, we should strengthen independent innovation and scientific and technological research. , to improve the level of efficient utilization of resource recycling.”
The National People's Congress and the National People's Congress in 2022 are about to be held. Jiang Weiping, a representative of the National People's Congress and chairman of Tianqi Lithium Industry, suggested to speed up the green development of Sichuan lithium mine resources. Jiang Weiping said that accelerating the development and utilization of lithium ore resources in Sichuan is to fully implement the strategy of "a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and domestic and international dual cycles promoting each other", to ensure the security of the supply chain of important national strategic resources, and to achieve the national "dual carbon" goal. It is also an important measure to accelerate the transformation of Sichuan's resource advantages into production capacity advantages, make full use of the window period of energy structure reform, and better promote the adjustment of economic structure and the transformation of energy consumption.
my country is the world's largest new energy vehicle market.
According to Xin Guobin, Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the development of my country's new energy vehicle industry is relatively fast. Annual sales increased from 507,000 in 2016 to 1.367 million in 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 28%. Last year, the new energy vehicle industry delivered a splendid answer sheet. Production and sales both exceeded 3.5 million units, reaching 3.545 million and 3.521 million respectively, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year, ranking first in the world for seven consecutive years. The promotion volume has exceeded 9 million. The achievements of the new energy vehicle industry in 2021 exceeded the predictions of some experts and institutions.
Battery-grade lithium carbonate (purity ≥99.5%) is mainly used in the production of cathode materials and electrolytes for lithium-ion batteries, and is an important material in the new energy vehicle industry. From the perspective of demand, the rapid popularization of terminal new energy vehicles has become one of the core driving forces for the continuous rise in the price of lithium carbonate.
The price increase of lithium carbonate is a dividend for upstream companies, but it is tantamount to huge cost pressure for terminal car companies. One of the main concerns of the current market is whether the unlimited price increase of lithium carbonate will have an impact on terminal sales.
According to the Financial Associated Press, due to the sharp rise in raw material prices and the news of the subsidy ebbing, many car companies have begun to announce price increases. On January 21, BYD announced that it would adjust the official guide price of new energy models, ranging from 1,000 to 7,000 yuan; previously, Nezha Auto raised the price of its models by 2,000 yuan to 5,000 yuan; Xiaopeng Motors The official website also shows that all Xpeng models have raised their subsidized prices by around 4,300-5,900 yuan.
Recently, Guotai Junan Securities estimated the cost of car companies. When a bicycle is charged at 55 degrees, the corresponding lithium price increases by 100,000 yuan per ton, and the cost increases by 3,000 yuan.
From this point of view, part of the increase in lithium carbonate may have been shared by consumers.
Reference source:
Gelonghui: Lithium carbonate exceeds 500,000 / ton: don't be greedy, be fearful
China Securities Network: Jiang Weiping, deputy to the National People's Congress and chairman of Tianqi Lithium: It is recommended to speed up the green development of lithium ore resources in Sichuan
Car headlines: The two sessions are approaching, what issues will Zeng Yuqun raise in the Ningde era?
China Electric Power Association New Energy Vehicles: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that the lithium battery materials that have risen by 300% in half a year are going to cool down?
Securities Star: Over 500,000 yuan! Is the surge in lithium carbonate due to insufficient production capacity or hoarding?
Investment Express: Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices soar
(Edited by China Powder Network / Qingli)
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